公众灾害风险可接受性与避灾意愿的初探——以川渝地区旱灾风险为例

在综述前人研究的基础上,以川渝地区旱灾为例,通过实地调查与访谈,从公众可接受的旱灾损失与频率、假定旱灾风险情景下的避险意愿等角度,对公众旱灾风险可接受性进行了初步探讨。结果表明,公众合理可接受的旱灾损失与频率分别在26.5%~52.8%与32.0%~64.3%区间范围内;并以一般旱灾、严重旱灾风险情景为限制线,确定了公众合理可接受风险区域;随着灾害损失风险增加,公众规避风险投资意愿呈现出中间高两头低的趋势,当灾害损失达到约50%~70%时,公众避险投资意愿达到最高,意愿避险投资占可能损失的比重约为62%。鉴于川渝地区的旱灾形势,今后旱灾风险管理的关键,一是加强对旱灾的监测与预警预报;二是完善旱灾风险的常规化管理,发展高效灌溉农业,充分利用客水资源,完善提高现有农田水网建设;三是积极探索公众-企业-政府多方共同参与的高效风险管理模式。     

Challenging the current strategy of radiological protection of the environment: arguments for an ecosystem approach

The system of radiological protection of the environment that is currently under development is one contribution to the general need to adequately protect the environment against stress. Dominated by operational goals, it emphasizes conceptual and methodological approaches that are readily accessible today: reference organisms supported by individual-based traditional ecotoxicological data. Whilst there are immediate advantages to this approach (pragmatism, consistency with other approaches in use for man and biota), there are also clear limitations, especially in a longer run perspective, that need to be acknowledged and further considered. One can mention a few: uncertainties generated by the need for various extrapolations (from lower to higher levels of biological organisation, …), various features missed such as potential ecological impact through impairment of ecosystem processes, trans-generational impacts as mediated through genomic instability, indirect effects mediated through trophic interactions or disruption of ecological balances,… Such limitations have already been faced in other fields of environmental protection against other stressors, pushing a number of environment professionals to assign stronger emphasis on more systemic approaches. This review discusses the advantages and limitations of the current approach designed for the radiological protection of non-human biota in the broader context of environment protection as a whole, with especial reference to upcoming trends and evolutions. This leads in particular to advocating the need to boost scientific and methodological approaches featuring the ecosystem concept as a mean to access a unified goal of protection: preserving life sustainability through protection of ecosystem structure and functioning.     

Development and Use of a Sedimentation Risk Index for Unpaved Road‐Stream Crossings in the Choctawhatchee Watershed1

Abstract: Unpaved road‐stream crossings increase sediment yields in streams and alter channel morphology and stability. Before restoration and sedimentation reduction strategies can be implemented, a priority listing of unpaved road‐stream crossings must be created. The objectives of this study were to develop a sedimentation risk index (SRI) for unpaved road‐stream crossings and to prioritize 125 sites in the Choctawhatchee watershed (southeastern Alabama) using this model. Field surveys involved qualitative and quantitative observations of 73 metrics related to waterway conditions, crossing structures, road approaches, and roadside soil erosion. The road‐stream crossing risk analyses involved elimination of candidate metrics based on redundancy, skewness, lack of data, professional judgment, lack of nonzero values, unbalanced box plots, and limited ranges of values. A final selection of 12 metrics formed the SRI and weighed factors involving soil erodibility, road sedimentation abatement features, and stream morphology alteration. The SRI was organized into narrative categories (excellent, good, fair, poor, and very poor) based on the distribution of scores. No excellent sites (scores ≥55) were found in this study, 17 (20.7%) were good (low sedimentation risk), 37 (45.1%) were fair (moderate sedimentation risk), 26 (31.7%) were poor (high sedimentation risk), and two (2.5%) were very poor (high sedimentation risk). There was no significant difference in SRI scores among crossing structure type (round culverts, box culverts, and bridges) (H = 4.31, df = 2, p = 0.058). A future study of the Choctawhatchee watershed involving the same study sites could assess the success of restoration plans and activities based on site score improvement or decline.     

我国冬小麦霜冻灾害致灾因子危险度评价——基于作物生育阶段气象指标

霜冻是一种威胁农业生产的气象灾害,对其致灾因子危险度的研究,可为大尺度的作物霜冻灾害区划及农业保险提供依据。根据作物生长发育的阶段性原理,以全国751个气象台站56年的逐日最低气温资料以及作物生育期资料为基础,统计得到冬小麦各个生育阶段不同灾害等级（轻霜冻、中霜冻、重霜冻）的年霜冻日数,并计算出冬小麦全生育期内不同等级霜冻的发生概率,基于以上两项指标对冬小麦霜冻致灾因子危险度做出评价。结果表明,研究期内重霜冻年霜日最大值为129d,而轻霜冻和中霜冻霜日最大值分别为23 d和19 d,冬小麦受重霜冻危害时间较长;冬小麦霜冻的频发区、多发区、少发区从北向南依次分布,随着霜冻等级增加,频发区的面积差异不大,但多发区的面积减小、少发区面积增大;冬小麦霜冻灾害危险度等级最低的地区主要分布在低纬度的几个省份,如海南、广东、广西、云南等,危险度等级最高的地区集中在青藏高原地区。     

Diversity of bacterial isolates during full scale rotary drum composting

Bacterial diversity of full scale rotary drum composter from biodegradable organic waste samples were analyzed through two different approaches, i.e., Culture dependent and independent techniques. Culture-dependent enumerations for indigenous population of bacterial isolates mainly total heterotrophic bacteria (Bacillus species, Pseudomonas species and Enterobacter species), Fecal Coliforms, Fecal Streptococci, Escherichia coli, Salmonella species and Shigella species showed reduction during the composting period. On the other hand, Culture-independent method using PCR amplification of specific 16S rRNA sequences identified the presence of Acinetobacter species, Actinobacteria species, Bacillus species, Clostridium species, Hydrogenophaga species, Butyrivibrio species, Pedobacter species, Empedobactor species and Flavobacterium species by sequences clustering in the phylogenetic tree. Furthermore, correlating physico-chemical analysis of samples with bacterial diversity revealed the bacterial communities have undergone changes, possibly linked to the variations in temperature and availability of new metabolic substrates while decomposing organics at different stages of composting.     

土壤中钙、镁的形态分析及提取序列的研究

本文采用改进的BCR三步连续提取法对河北某食道癌高发地土壤中钙、镁进行了形态分析及提取序列的研究。实验表明：该地区土壤中镁主要以残渣态形式存在（占总量的83.66％-88.36％），钙则受提取序列的影响很大，在第一提取序列中，以酸溶态为主（74.11％-83.38％）；第二提取序列中，以有机物结合态为主（78.12％-97.17％）；第三、四提取序列中，以氧化物结合态为主（87.49％-103％）。提取剂的加入顺序明显影响到钙的各个形态的真实含量。     

Multi-criteria analysis via the VIKOR method for prioritizing land-use restraint strategies in the Tseng-Wen reservoir watershed

It is important to adopt proper water and soil conservation and land-use planning in a watershed for lowering adverse impacts on reservoir water quality. Although reservoir watersheds occupy a large amount of land in Taiwan, high population density has exerted development pressures on such land. Therefore, the priority ranking of land-use restrictions for the subdivisions with different degrees of environmental vulnerability is necessary in watershed management. Since there are several criteria for evaluating the potential environmental impact from the subdivisions, multi-criteria analysis was applied as a technique for solving these problems in this study. The VIKOR method was applied to determine the best feasible solution according to the selected criteria, including geographical and meteorological factors. The objective of this study was to establish the priority ranking of land-use restrictions in the Tseng-Wen reservoir wastershed in southern Taiwan. The results show that subdivisions close to the outlet or reservoir area should have the priority of land-use restrictions.     

How good is GLASOD?

The Global Assessment of Soil Degradation (GLASOD) has been the most influential global appraisal of land quality in terms of environmental policy. However, its expert judgments were never tested for their consistency and could not be reproduced at unvisited sites, while the relationship between the GLASOD assessments of land degradation and the social and economic impact of that degradation remains unclear. Yet, other methodologies that could respond to urgent calls for an updated assessment of the global environmental quality are not operational or, at best, in progress. Therefore, we evaluate the reliability and social relevance of the GLASOD approach and assess its candidacy for new global environmental assessments. The study concentrates on the African continent, capitalizing on new GIS data to delineate and define the characteristics of GLASOD map units. Consistency is tested by comparing expert judgments on soil degradation hazard for similar combinations of biophysical conditions and land use. Reproducibility is evaluated by estimating an ordered logit model that relates the qualitative land degradation classes to easily available information on explanatory variables, the results of which can be used to assess the land degradation at unvisited sites. Finally, a cross-sectional analysis investigates the relation between GLASOD assessments and crop production data at sub-national scale and its association with the prevalence of malnutrition. The GLASOD assessments prove to be only moderately consistent and hardly reproducible, while the counter-intuitive trend with crop production reveals the complexity of the production-degradation relationship. It appears that increasing prevalence of malnutrition coincides with poor agro-productive conditions and highly degraded land. The GLASOD approach can be improved by resolving the differences in conceptualization among experts and by defining the boundaries of the ordered classes in the same units as independent, quantitative land degradation data.     

Assessing the toxicity of organophosphorous pesticides to indigenous algae with implication for their ecotoxicological impact to aquatic ecosystems

This study aimed to determine the toxicity of three organophosphorous pesticides, chlorpyrifos, terbufos and methamidophos, to three indigenous algal species isolated from local rivers and algal mixtures. The diatom Nitzschia sp. (0.30–1.68 mg L^?1 of EC₅₀ -the estimated concentration related to a 50% growth reduction) and the cyanobacteria Oscillatoria sp. (EC₅₀ of 0.33–7.99 mg L^?1) were sensitive to single pesticide treatment and the chlorophyta Chlorella sp. was the most tolerant (EC₅₀ of 1.29–41.16 mg L^?1). In treatment with the mixture of three pesticides, Chlorella sp. became the most sensitive alga. The antagonistic joint toxic effects on three indigenous algae and algal mixtures were found for most of the two pesticide mixtures. The results suggested that mixture of pesticides might induce the detoxification mechanisms more easily than the single pesticide. The synergistic interactions between terbufos and methamidophos to algal mixtures and between methamidophos and chlorpyrifos to Nitzschia sp. indicated methamidophos might act as a potential synergist. Differential sensitivity of three families of algae to these pesticides might result in changes in the algal community structures after river water has been contaminated with different pesticides, posing great ecological risk on the structure and functioning of the aquatic ecosystem.     

基于数字图像处理技术的金相分析研究

采用和改进了人际交互式图像分割算法Live-wire,对电气火灾中的典型火烧金相图和一次短路金相图进行处理,结合数字形态学操作,精确提取了两类金相图中的典型胞状晶和柱状晶结构;分析和讨论了多种结构描述子对晶格分类的作用,结果表明,离心率和晶格标记方差两个描述子能有效区分两类晶格结构;采用聚类分析和Fisher判别法,实现了对两类金相图的自动分类.